Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS62 KILM 241817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch will be extended through 8 PM Saturday. Key messages
were updated along with the 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very high precipitable water and a nearly stationary front,
coupled with mid-level impulses will continue to support the
potential for heavy rainfall through Saturday.

2) Some drying is expected during Sunday, but there will be
some mainly diurnally driven shower/t-storm chances Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Very high precipitable water and a nearly
stationary front, coupled with mid-level impulses will continue
to support the potential for heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Deep moisture will remain in place across the forecast area
through Saturday. In fact, a swath of very high precipitable
water (>2.3 inches) will be focused along the front and across
the forecast area. The nearly stationary boundary as of this
afternoon was positioned near/along a Surf City to ILM and CKI
line. The front and its associated differential heating coupled
with the seabreeze has supported scattered storms so far this
afternoon. As the impulse moves away from the coast expect a
lull then additional upstream mid- level impulses will help
initiate subsequent rounds of storms overnight into Saturday.
Timing these impulses - along with any diurnal and differential
heating influences will make it tricky. While rainfall has been
lackluster so far today the probabilistic QPF shown for areas
mainly east of I-95 show a most likely outcome of 1-3 inches
with potential higher end scenarios of 2-4". Where any
significant storms occur could easily see isolated/localized
higher amounts of 4-6" and some flash flooding. Could see
slightly better H3 divergence Saturday and with the front
lingering along with the high precipitable water it could be an
active day if things come together. The current plan is to
extend the Flood Watch through 8 PM Saturday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Some drying is expected during Sunday, but
there will be some mainly diurnally driven shower/t-storm
chances Monday and Tuesday.

Time-height cross sections show the column beginning to dry
some late Saturday night into Sunday as deeper NWly flow begins
to dominate. Moisture will be limited above H7, and expect a
return to more diurnal convection Monday into Tuesday with
lesser areal extent compared to what we have been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will primarily affect the
coastal terminals with TEMPO restrictions. Less coverage
upstream of KFLO/KLBT initially, then as an additional impulse
approaches from the west should see an increase at the inland
terminals by this evening and overnight. Best chance for IFR
will be at the inland terminals on the cooler side of the
boundary, but there are some chances for IFR CIGs at the coastal
terminals tonight as well.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to
storms expected Saturday afternoon. The column does begin to dry
some Saturday night into Sunday so less coverage of storms by
that time. Could see some restrictions Sunday morning. VFR
conditions expected outside of any diurnal convection Monday-
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Friday through Wednesday...A nearly stationary front and rounds of
storms will create havoc with wind direction/speed. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms expected across the coastal waters this
afternoon, should increase in coverage overnight into Saturday and
expand into the offshore waters. Overall, outside of any convection
expect seas to be 3 ft or less through much of the period. SWly
winds will prevail south of the front and away from any storms
through Saturday. The flow will veer around to a Nly direction late
Saturday night into Sunday with the old front finally south of the
area. Typical SWly flow will return to the waters Monday and persist
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for SCZ024-032-033-039-
     054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP